World War III?

This is what I posted to a web forum recently:

. . . I find that Newt Gingrich's recent characterization of the world conflict situation as "World War III" to be interesting. Newt is a historian and a good thinker, but he is also someone who would like to be president, so all his comments are laced with a certain self-promotion.

Personally, I agree more with Neal Boortz when he calls the current world scenario World War IV. Neal believes that WW III was the cold war, which the US and Britian won thanks largely to the leadership of Reagan and Thatcher.

Whether WW III or WW IV, I do think we are now in a World War. I have been reading about WW I lately and I am struck by the similarities of that time to our own.

All world wars are about alliances, but the alliances that harkened the onset of WW I are very like the alliances that are becoming apparent in the Middle East today. In WW I Germany was using Austro-Hungary as a surrogate in an attempt to instigate war with France (knowing that Russian and Britain might likely join in due to treaty alliances).

Much the same way it is apparent now that Syria and Iran are using Lebanon, specifically Hezbollah, to instigate war with Israel. But the alliances are present. The US, Britian and (don't be shocked) France will probably all back Israel to the bitter end. Iran and Syria are attempting to invoke Arab alliances throughout the middle east, but with little success to date.

Iran, however, is also forming/strengthening an alliance with North Korea. Reports now indicate that Iranian observers were present at the July missile tests in North Korea.

Beyond that, there is a shift occuring in our own hemisphere. Venezuela is replacing Cuba as this hemisphere's dangerous dictatorship. And Venezuela is a player in South America ... they could lure several countries into alliances (under the banner of trade) that would prove harmful to the US. All is not quiet here ... it's just not heavily reported. Mexico is facing issues on its southern border as immigrants work into their country, probably on their way to our southern border.

I will not be surprised if we learn that Venezuela is tied to North Korea. Maybe that link is already established, but I have not heard of it.

The primary difference between 1914 and today is two-fold. First, there is the great divide of nuclear vs. non-nuclear powers. That divide is as yet uncrossed by the Syria-Iran-North Korea-Venezuela alliance (so far as we know). Second is the presence of the United Nations. Bumbling and impotent as they ultimately are, they are a present reality that attempts to "short-circuit" other alliances that may form or threaten. But the recent history of the UN shows they have little to offer except food and words.

So here we are at the onset of a World War very much like the onset of WW I ... which did not starte precisely with an event (despite the assignment of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand as the starting point) so much as a "one thing led to another" series of events. That is what I believe we are witnessing now.

One thing leads to another. For instance, now that Israel has begun a serious conflict with Hezbollah that has uncovered (or made irrefutable) the link of Middle East terrorism with Syrian/Iranian promulgation, does anyone really think that this situation can conclude without a serious strike on Syria or Iran, or both?

The future, I am afraid, holds more escalation than negotiation.